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Policy Options to Accelerate the Adoption of Zero-Emission Vehicles in California

Esteban Guerrero
Jillian Kilby
Brian Kooiman
Matt McCue
California Governor’s Office of Planning and Research
2016

In 2012, Governor Jerry Brown issued Executive Order B-16-2012, directing California to have 1.5 million zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) on the road by 2025.1 The intention of the ZEV mandate is to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, decrease dependence on fossil fuels, and accelerate the innovation and development of clean-energy technologies in California.

This report investigates ZEV sales projections, the likelihood of achieving the mandate by 2025, and policy recommendations to accelerate ZEV growth in California. The two research questions addressed in this report, generated in conjunction with our client, are:

  1. Will California reach its objective of having at least 1.5 million Zero-Emission Vehicles on the road by 2025?
  2. How can California accelerate the adoption of Zero-Emission Vehicles?

In this report, we review literature that details ZEV uptake modeling and create two additional models to further inform ZEV adoption projections. Our analysis suggests that the state will reach – or come very close to reaching – its 1.5 million ZEV target. We then summarize interviews the research team conducted with twenty-five California ZEV experts, and propose policies to accelerate ZEV adoption.

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