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AI Is Increasing the Gap Between Countries: Effects in Human Development and Strategies to Prevent It

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Felipe de Mussy
Felipe de Mussy
2020

The adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) is changing the world. Earlier studies have concluded that countries will adopt AI technologies at different rates and that therefore some countries will likely experience greater economic growth from AI than others. This paper asks an additional question: how might these differences in AI-based economic growth in turn affect average national life expectancy and mean years of education? Using regression analysis and data from the United Nations’ Human Development Index (HDI), the paper first identifies 2019 correlations that show the relationship between national per capita income, on the one hand, and national life expectancy and mean years of education, on the other hand. Then by assuming that the 2030 relationship among these variables is likely to be similar to the 2019 correlations, the analysis combines these correlations and existing projections of 2030 per capita incomes in 20 countries, after they adopt different levels of AI, to estimate what life expectancy and years of schooling might be in those countries in 2030. These estimates show just how much different rates of AI adoption may increase existing differences in lifespans and education among nations. Further studies are needed to establish causal relationships and to develop effective public policy responses.

 

Keywords

artificial intelligence, AI, Human Development Index, HDI, economic growth, Health, Life Expectancy, education, Schooling